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Global economy and trade
Where it stands
The IMF's October World Economic Outlook expects global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, with headline inflation rising to 4.7% this year. It says energy importers outside the technology supply chain face the toughest outlook and lists escalating conflicts, a reassessment of AI expectations, renewed trade tensions and fiscal vulnerabilities among the downside risks. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Oct. 7 that higher energy costs were feeding into inflation, policy rates and bond yields, that U.S. 10-year government bond yields were the highest since 2007, Germany's since 2009 and Japan's since 1996, and that global public debt was set to top 100% of GDP soon.
The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75%-4% on Oct. 28, with two of 12 voters preferring an increase, and said inflation remains elevated. The European Central Bank left rates unchanged on Oct. 29 after debating a hike, with euro area inflation at 3.8% in September, and President Christine Lagarde said she will step down after the February 2027 policy meeting.
U.S. tariffs now rest on trade-law authorities such as Sections 232, 301 and 338 after the Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under the IEEPA emergency-powers law in February; the Tax Foundation puts the average applied U.S. tariff rate under current tariffs at 11.8%. Oil prices fell more than 7% on Nov. 2 on hopes for U.S.-Iran diplomacy, which Qatar is mediating, but a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Nov. 3 that the two sides were still far from a deal and that the U.S. must meet Tehran's demands, including waiving oil sanctions, ending its naval blockade and releasing frozen funds, for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen.
Sources:International Monetary Fund(Primary source)International Monetary Fund(Primary source)Federal Reserve Board(Primary source)European Central Bank(Primary source)Tax Foundation(Outlet not rated yet)Reuters (via Internazionale)(Outlet not rated yet)
Latest developments
Senior Iranian official says US deal still far off after oil falls on diplomacy hopes
Oil prices fell more than 7% on Nov. 2 on hopes that diplomacy was progressing, and Qatari mediators went to Tehran that night to discuss a version of a draft US-Iran deal. On Nov. 3 a senior Iranian official told Reuters the two sides were still far from an agreement and that the US must meet Tehran's demands, including waiving oil sanctions, ending its naval blockade and releasing frozen funds, for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen.
Reuters (via Internazionale)(Outlet not rated yet)
OPEC+ core members keep December oil output targets unchanged
Seven core OPEC+ members including Saudi Arabia and Russia left their December production targets unchanged at an online meeting, Reuters reported; most are producing far below their targets as Gulf members rebuild exports disrupted by the Iran war. Brent settled at almost $118 a barrel on Oct. 30, its highest since April. All 21 members of the group meet on Nov. 29, when analysts expect them to set 2027 quotas.
Reuters (via GV Wire)(Outlet not rated yet)
Bank of Japan holds rate at 1.25% and speeds up sales of its ETF holdings
The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at around 1.25% in an 8-1 vote, with board member Hajime Takata proposing a rise to 1.5%. It also decided to increase the pace of sales of its exchange-traded fund holdings from about 330 billion yen to about 860 billion yen a year at book value, starting in January 2027.
Bank of Japan(Primary source)
French economy shrinks 0.1% in the third quarter as debt concerns lift yields
France's GDP fell 0.1% in the third quarter, statistics office Insee said, after stalling in the second. Finance Minister Roland Lescure warned the country was 'headed straight for a wall' if the turnaround set out in the budget is not achieved. Concern over the public finances has driven up French government borrowing costs; France 24 reported on Oct. 21 that bond yields had topped 5%, their highest since 2002, after a weekend of unrest.
France 24 (with AFP)(Outlet not rated yet)France 24(Outlet not rated yet)
ECB holds rates as Lagarde says she will leave in February 2027
The European Central Bank kept its three key rates unchanged, with the deposit rate at 2.50%, after policymakers debated an increase; euro area inflation rose to 3.8% in September. President Christine Lagarde said she will step down on Feb. 7, 2027, about nine months before her term was due to end, and that a process to find her successor has started.
European Central Bank(Primary source)European Central Bank(Primary source)Reuters (via The Star)(Outlet not rated yet)
World Bank expects commodity prices to rise 23% in 2026 as energy costs jump
The World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook projected that commodity prices will rise 23% in 2026 and fall 7% in 2027, with energy prices up 32% this year. It forecast Brent crude averaging $91 a barrel in 2026 and $79 in 2027, or $105 in 2027 in an adverse scenario, and warned that escalation in the Middle East could push energy prices higher.
World Bank(Primary source)
Fed holds rates at 3.75%-4% as two policymakers vote for an increase
The Federal Reserve kept its federal funds target range at 3.75%-4.00% in a 10-2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferring a quarter-point increase, and said inflation remains elevated. The decision followed September's hike; annual US consumer price inflation reached 3.7% in September, up from 3.4% in August.
Federal Reserve Board(Primary source)Al Jazeera(Outlet not rated yet)
China's economy grows 4.5% in the third quarter as property investment falls
China's GDP grew 4.5% from a year earlier in the third quarter and 4.6% in the first nine months, the National Bureau of Statistics said. Over the nine months, investment in property development fell 20.6% and fixed-asset investment 7.2%, while retail sales rose 1.1% and consumer prices 0.9%.
National Bureau of Statistics of China(Primary source)
Trump order implements Russia-Iran sanctions law but waives its tariffs for now
President Trump signed an executive order implementing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, which he signed into law on Sept. 18. The order raises duties on Russian goods by 500%, and by 100% on goods from the five largest buyers of Russian crude oil and gas if they knowingly make new purchases, but waives those duties and a list of the law's sanctions until the president or the secretary of state decides further action is appropriate.
The White House(Primary source)
IMF holds 2026 global growth forecast at 3.1% and raises its inflation outlook
The IMF's October World Economic Outlook left its 2026 world growth projection at 3.1%, unchanged from April, and raised its 2027 forecast to 3.4%. It projected global headline inflation of 4.7% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, a combined upward revision of 0.7 percentage point, with energy and food prices mainly behind the temporary rise, and said risks are tilted to the downside, including a prolonged Middle East stalemate or escalation and a reassessment of AI's profit and productivity prospects.
International Monetary Fund(Primary source)International Monetary Fund(Primary source)
WTO raises 2026 goods trade growth forecast to 3.9% on AI-related demand
The World Trade Organization raised its forecast for growth in world merchandise trade volume in 2026 to 3.9%, from 1.9% in March, and projected 4.1% for 2027. It said semiconductors, servers and other AI-related goods made up 47% of the growth in goods trade in the first half of 2026, while crude oil shipments from the Middle East dropped by about 24% over the same period amid the conflict there.
World Trade Organization(Primary source)
Bank of Japan raises its policy rate to about 1.25% in a 7-2 vote
The Bank of Japan lifted its target for the overnight call rate to around 1.25% from 1.0%, effective Sept. 24. It said underlying inflation was nearing its 2% goal, with producer prices pushed up by AI-related demand, high crude oil prices and a weaker yen, and that it would keep raising rates in line with economic and price developments. Two board members dissented.
Bank of Japan(Primary source)Bank of Japan(Primary source)
Federal Reserve raises rates for the first time since 2023
The Federal Reserve raised its federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% in a 12-0 vote, its first increase since July 2023, saying inflation remains elevated. Officials' median projection put the rate at 4.1% at the end of 2026, consistent with one more quarter-point rise, and PCE inflation at 3.7% for the year.
Federal Reserve Board(Primary source)Federal Reserve Board(Primary source)Al Jazeera(Outlet not rated yet)
ECB raises key interest rates by a quarter point, lifting deposit rate to 2.50%
The European Central Bank raised all three of its key interest rates by a quarter percentage point, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, the main refinancing rate to 2.65% and the marginal lending rate to 2.90%, effective Sept. 16, and said the Middle East conflict was still adding to inflation pressures. It was the bank's second increase of 2026, after one that took effect in June.
European Central Bank(Primary source)European Central Bank(Primary source)