Intelligence · Conflict
Russia-Ukraine war
Where it stands
The front line has shifted little in recent months. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses that Russian forces lost more ground than they gained in both September and October. Russia keeps up large drone, missile and glide-bomb attacks on Ukrainian cities and the power grid: overnight into Nov. 3 it launched 289 drones, 17 ballistic missiles and 59 cruise missiles, mostly at energy sites, President Volodymyr Zelensky said. Ukraine keeps striking Russian refineries and oil depots. UN monitors verified 2,570 civilians killed and 15,211 injured in Ukraine from January to September 2026, 59% more casualties than in the same months of 2025.
Diplomacy has picked up. A local truce brokered by US First Lady Melania Trump let aid into Russian-occupied Oleshky before it ended on Nov. 1; she said nearly 800 people were evacuated. US envoy Steve Witkoff has announced US-Russia-Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi on Nov. 10-11, the first US-mediated round since February. He announced them on Nov. 2, the day Russian glide bombs killed at least 31 people at an aid distribution in Komyshuvakha, Zaporizhzhia region, according to Ukrainian officials.
Washington has eased economic pressure on Moscow as fuel prices climbed during the US-Israeli war with Iran. President Donald Trump struck a deal with Vladimir Putin in October for Russian diesel supplies, and on Oct. 16 he waived the tariffs and most of the sanctions in a Russia sanctions law he had signed on Sept. 18. Ukraine has asked the EU for about €70 billion in extra support for 2027; the EU is already paying out a €90 billion loan.
Sources:Institute for the Study of War (via Critical Threats)(Outlet not rated yet)Institute for the Study of War (via Critical Threats)(Outlet not rated yet)UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine(Primary source)UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine(Primary source)Al Jazeera(Outlet not rated yet)Al Jazeera(Outlet not rated yet)Al Jazeera(Outlet not rated yet)The White House(Primary source)France 24(Outlet not rated yet)France 24(Outlet not rated yet)France 24(Outlet not rated yet)
Latest developments
Russia launches large strike on Ukraine's power grid; Kharkiv hospital hit
Russia launched 289 drones, 17 ballistic missiles and 59 cruise missiles overnight, mainly at power plants and substations in nine regions, Zelensky said; Zhytomyr's governor said more than 180,000 people there lost power. Zelensky said a strike on a Kharkiv hospital injured 73 people. Russia's Defence Ministry said it hit energy sites that supply the army and arms factories.
Al Jazeera(Outlet not rated yet)
US announces US-Russia-Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi for Nov. 10-11
US special envoy Steve Witkoff said delegations from the US, Russia and Ukraine would meet in Abu Dhabi on Nov. 10-11 to discuss post-war security arrangements, de-escalation and humanitarian steps. It would be the first US-mediated round since February; the Kremlin later said former culture minister Vladimir Medinsky would lead Russia's delegation.
Al Jazeera(Outlet not rated yet)France 24(Outlet not rated yet)Al Jazeera(Outlet not rated yet)
Glide bombs hit aid distribution in Komyshuvakha, killing at least 31, officials say
Russian glide bombs struck a school in the village of Komyshuvakha in Zaporizhzhia region during a publicly announced aid distribution, killing at least 31 people and injuring five, local authorities said; the dead included two rescue workers and four police officers. UN monitors, who had not yet verified the toll, said the attack appeared to violate international humanitarian law. Russia did not immediately comment.
UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine(Primary source)Al Jazeera(Outlet not rated yet)France 24(Outlet not rated yet)
Russia lost more ground than it gained in October, ISW assesses
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russian forces took about 140 square kilometres and lost about 167 in October, a second straight monthly net loss, with gains only in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia regions. Ukraine's General Staff said Russian forces lost 54,400 troops killed or seriously wounded in October, the highest monthly total since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022.
Institute for the Study of War (via Critical Threats)(Outlet not rated yet)
Oleshky truce ends after evacuations; Kyiv says Russia declined to extend it
The local truce around Oleshky expired late on Nov. 1 after six days with no reported violations; a Ukrainian official said Russia turned down an offer to extend it. Melania Trump said the truce allowed nearly 800 people to be evacuated, and Ukraine's General Staff said its troops moved 167 civilians from threatened areas of Kherson region to safer places.
Al Jazeera(Outlet not rated yet)France 24(Outlet not rated yet)
US approves possible $2.1 billion sale of Patriot missiles to Ukraine
The State Department approved a possible sale to Ukraine of 500 Patriot PAC-3 interceptors valued at about $2.1 billion, to be paid for with allied contributions and EU loan funds. Zelensky welcomed the decision but said deliveries could take years, and suggested that allies supply missiles from their own stocks in the meantime.
Al Jazeera(Outlet not rated yet)France 24(Outlet not rated yet)
White House says Melania Trump brokered local truce in occupied Oleshky
The White House said First Lady Melania Trump had secured a ceasefire limited to Russian-occupied Oleshky in Kherson region so aid could reach the city and residents could leave. Russian and Ukrainian officials confirmed the deal, and a Ukrainian official said it would start on Oct. 27, not Oct. 29 as the White House had first said. The White House estimated that 1,700 to 2,000 people remained in the city, down from about 24,000 before the war.
The White House(Primary source)Associated Press (via Anchorage Daily News)(Outlet not rated yet)Al Jazeera(Outlet not rated yet)
Kremlin says three-way talks will resume after Witkoff meets Putin
US envoy Steve Witkoff met Putin for more than three hours in St Petersburg, a day after talks with Zelensky in Oslo. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said three-way talks with the US and Ukraine would resume in mid-November, possibly in Abu Dhabi, though he said new Ukrainian and European proposals had little substance. Russia also freed US citizen Stephen Hubbard.
France 24(Outlet not rated yet)Institute for the Study of War (via Critical Threats)(Outlet not rated yet)
Ukraine hits St Petersburg oil sites in one of its largest drone attacks
Russia's Defence Ministry said it destroyed 1,015 Ukrainian drones over 15 regions, Crimea and the Black Sea. In St Petersburg, an oil terminal and an oil depot caught fire, and Governor Alexander Beglov said one person was killed and five were hospitalised. Zelensky said Russia had attacked Ukraine's energy, oil and gas sites 76 times since Trump's ceasefire announcement.
France 24(Outlet not rated yet)The National News Desk(Outlet not rated yet)
Trump waives tariffs and most sanctions in new Russia sanctions law
Trump signed an executive order waiving the Graham Act's tariffs and most of its sanctions two days before the law's measures were due to take effect, while leaving earlier US sanctions on Russia in place. The order sets no end date; Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the pause would last 60 days while its economic effects were studied. Zelensky said the move rewarded Putin.
The White House(Primary source)France 24(Outlet not rated yet)
Trump announces Russia-Ukraine 'energy ceasefire'; neither side confirms
Trump said on social media that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an immediate 'energy ceasefire' but gave no details, and neither government confirmed it. Zelensky said the announcement was news to him and that Ukraine would comply if Russia did; he said Russia struck a Kyiv power plant after the announcement, and energy sites in Kharkiv region were also hit. Trump had made a similar announcement on Sept. 14.
Reuters (via The Star)(Outlet not rated yet)France 24(Outlet not rated yet)Meduza(Outlet not rated yet)
Trump announces deal for Russian diesel as US Treasury eases fuel sanctions
Trump said Vladimir Putin had agreed to supply Russian diesel to US and world markets, starting with more than 300,000 tonnes and followed by shipments totalling several million tonnes, and the Treasury issued a temporary licence for the trade running to April 2027. Washington had banned imports of Russian oil and gas in 2022. Zelensky said easing sanctions without a de-escalation deal showed weakness.
France 24(Outlet not rated yet)Straight Arrow News(Outlet not rated yet)
Russian strike on buses in Kramatorsk kills at least 30, officials say
A Russian glide bomb hit two passenger buses in Kramatorsk, a city near the front line in Donetsk region, according to Ukraine's national police; regional prosecutors and the governor's office said at least 30 people were killed and 18 injured. UN human rights chief Volker Türk said he was appalled by the wave of Russian strikes, which he said had reportedly killed at least 85 civilians since Oct. 5.
France 24(Outlet not rated yet)UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine(Primary source)
Trump signs Russia sanctions law with steep tariffs on buyers of Russian oil
President Donald Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act into law. It targets Russian officials, banks and shadow-fleet tankers, bars new US investment in Russia and provides for a 500% duty on Russian goods and duties of up to 100% on goods from the five largest buyers of Russian oil and gas, while letting the president waive its measures.
The White House(Primary source)France 24(Outlet not rated yet)