Intelligence · Country
Russia
Where it stands
The ruling United Russia party won 349 of the State Duma's 450 seats in the 18-20 September election, according to official results, keeping its constitutional majority; the liberal Yabloko party was kept off the ballot and no OSCE observers were invited. Putin reshuffled the government in October, making Finance Minister Anton Siluanov also a deputy prime minister. The independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta announced its closure on 30 October, citing state pressure, and Russia's exit from the European anti-torture convention took effect on 1 November.
The IMF expects growth of 0.9% in 2026. The Bank of Russia kept its key rate at 14% on 23 October and expects inflation of 7.1-7.6% at year-end, against 6.8% on 19 October. The draft 2027-2029 budget puts the 2026 deficit at about 7.3 trillion rubles (3.2% of GDP) and allots 17.1 trillion rubles to national defense in 2027.
The US has eased some of its pressure on Moscow. Trump struck a deal with Putin to allow Russian diesel exports, then on 16 October paused a sanctions law passed by Congress in September; Secretary of State Marco Rubio described a 60-day pause. Envoy Steve Witkoff met Putin in St Petersburg in October, US-mediated talks with Ukraine are due to resume in Abu Dhabi on 10-11 November, and the Kremlin says a three-way meeting of Putin, Trump and Xi Jinping in China later in November is under discussion. The EU moved the other way, adding 1,569 names to its sanctions list on 12 October. The war in Ukraine is covered in a separate dossier.
Sources:The National Herald (AP)(Outlet not rated yet)China Daily HK (Xinhua)(Outlet not rated yet)APA(Outlet not rated yet)France 24 (AFP)(Outlet not rated yet)The Moscow Times(Outlet not rated yet)Interfax(Outlet not rated yet)Bank of Russia(Primary source)TASS(Outlet not rated yet)France 24 (AFP)(Outlet not rated yet)The Moscow Times(Outlet not rated yet)The Moscow Times(Outlet not rated yet)McCann FitzGerald(Outlet not rated yet)
Latest developments
Kremlin says Putin-Trump-Xi meeting in China is under discussion
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said a three-way meeting of Putin, Trump and Xi Jinping in China later in November was under discussion, with China as the main organizer; China's foreign ministry mentioned only a Xi-Putin meeting. Putin and Trump are expected at the APEC summit in Shenzhen on 18-19 November. Peskov also confirmed US-mediated talks with Ukraine in Abu Dhabi on 10-11 November, and Defense Minister Andrei Belousov arrived in Beijing for military talks.
The Moscow Times(Outlet not rated yet)The Moscow Times(Outlet not rated yet)Internazionale (Reuters)(Outlet not rated yet)
Russia's exit from European anti-torture convention takes effect
Russia's withdrawal from the Council of Europe's Convention for the Prevention of Torture took effect, a year after Moscow formally notified the council. The Council of Europe said the convention's inspectors had made 30 visits to more than 450 Russian detention facilities; rights groups warned that the exit leaves Russian inmates without their last international safeguard. Russia remains a party to the UN Convention Against Torture.
The Moscow Times(Outlet not rated yet)APA(Outlet not rated yet)
Novaya Gazeta announces closure, citing pressure from authorities
Novaya Gazeta, whose co-founder Dmitry Muratov shared the 2021 Nobel Peace Prize, said it was shutting down; editor-in-chief Sergei Sokolov said Russia's security services had forced the staff to stop working. The paper, which had been labeled a foreign agent and stripped of its media license, said it would turn off its servers and leave its Moscow building on 9 November.
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Putin speaks by phone with the leaders of Finland and Norway
Putin spoke by phone with Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre; the Kremlin and Finland's presidency said the Nordic leaders initiated the calls. They discussed the war in Ukraine and Baltic Sea security and agreed to stay in direct contact, ahead of planned trilateral talks in the United Arab Emirates.
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Bank of Russia holds key rate at 14% and raises inflation forecast
The central bank kept its key rate at 14%, as it had in September, saying current price pressures are still high. It raised its forecast for year-end inflation to 7.1-7.6% from 6-7% in September, with annual inflation at 6.8% on 19 October, and expects the key rate to average 12.5-13.5% in 2027.
Bank of Russia(Primary source)Bank of Russia(Primary source)TASS(Outlet not rated yet)
Putin reshuffles government; Siluanov adds deputy prime minister post
Putin approved government changes: Finance Minister Anton Siluanov was also named a deputy prime minister, Primorsky Krai governor Oleg Kozhemyako replaced Yuri Trutnev as deputy prime minister and envoy to the Far East, Irina Okladnikova succeeded Dmitry Grigorenko as government chief of staff, and aviation agency head Dmitry Yadrov became transport minister.
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Russian and Chinese prime ministers hold 31st regular meeting
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Chinese Premier Li Qiang held the 31st regular meeting of the two countries' heads of government in St Petersburg. Mishustin said farm trade grew by more than a third in the first nine months of 2026 and that the sides are expanding cargo transit, border crossings and use of the Northern Sea Route.
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Witkoff meets Putin in St Petersburg as Russia frees US citizen Hubbard
US envoy Steve Witkoff held talks with Putin in St Petersburg; Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov said they specifically discussed resuming Russia-US-Ukraine negotiations. During the meeting Putin announced the release of Stephen Hubbard, a 74-year-old American sentenced in 2024 to nearly seven years for allegedly fighting for Ukraine, a charge his family has questioned; Trump had asked for his release.
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Kremlin says strategic stability talks with the US need to resume
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow considers it necessary to restart strategic stability talks with Washington, noting that in effect no such agreements remain, a day after Trump said cutting nuclear arsenals could be the main subject of a three-way meeting with Putin and Xi Jinping. Peskov said Moscow was not prepared to disregard European countries' nuclear capabilities.
APA(Outlet not rated yet)
Trump pauses new US sanctions law targeting Russia's energy revenue
Trump signed an executive order putting on hold the sanctions and tariffs in a Russia sanctions law passed by Congress in September, which gave him authority to sanction major buyers of Russian oil and gas, two days before the law was due to take effect. Secretary of State Marco Rubio described a 60-day pause to assess the economic impact; Republican senators Thom Tillis and Ted Cruz criticized the decision.
France 24 (AFP)(Outlet not rated yet)Washington Examiner(Outlet not rated yet)
EU adopts 22nd sanctions package, its largest expansion of the Russia list
EU foreign ministers adopted a 22nd sanctions package adding 1,569 companies and individuals, which foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas described as the biggest one-time addition to the list since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. More than half of the new listings target makers and supply chains of Russian ballistic missiles and drones; the package added no significant new trade restrictions.
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Trump announces Russian diesel deal after call with Putin
After a phone call with Putin, Trump said Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel to the US and global markets, followed by larger volumes, and the US Treasury issued a temporary license for the sales. On 10 October Russia's government partially lifted its diesel export ban to implement what it called the two presidents' agreements, allowing 500,000 tonnes at first.
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Government submits 2027-2029 budget and widens 2026 deficit forecast
The government sent the State Duma a 2027-2029 budget projecting a 2027 deficit of 2.2% of GDP, and the Finance Ministry raised its 2026 deficit forecast to about 7.3 trillion rubles, or 3.2% of GDP, from 1.6% in the earlier plan. The draft allots 17.1 trillion rubles to national defense in 2027 and sets the base oil price at $50 a barrel.
Official results give United Russia 349 of 450 Duma seats
Russia's Central Election Commission said United Russia won 349 of 450 State Duma seats in the 18-20 September vote, a record that keeps its constitutional majority, on turnout of 59.8%. The liberal Yabloko party had been removed from the ballot, no OSCE observers were invited, and voting was also held in occupied Ukrainian regions, which Kyiv called illegal.
The National Herald (AP)(Outlet not rated yet)China Daily HK (Xinhua)(Outlet not rated yet)International IDEA(Outlet not rated yet)