Intelligence · Country
United States
Where it stands
Americans vote on Nov. 3 in midterm elections for a Congress that Republicans control, with 218 House seats to the Democrats' 214 and 53 of the Senate's 100 seats. The Supreme Court, which ruled against President Donald Trump last term on his emergency tariffs and his order limiting birthright citizenship, opened a new term on Oct. 5 with cases on immigrant detention, deportations to third countries, proof of citizenship for voter registration and bans on AR-15-style rifles.
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4% on Oct. 28, saying growth was strong and inflation elevated; two of the 12 voting officials wanted an increase. Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, and gasoline accounted for more than half of that month's increase; fuel prices have climbed during the war with Iran. Since the Supreme Court's February tariff ruling, the administration has used other trade laws, including Section 301 duties of 10% to 12.5% on goods from 60 trading partners that took effect July 24.
The war that began with joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28 continues. Trump said on Oct. 8 that the U.S. would not attack Iran before the election and that a blockade would stay in force. On Nov. 2, U.S. forces struck Iranian targets on Qeshm Island after, according to a senior U.S. official, Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired on an American aircraft. U.S. and Qatari mediators are working on a possible deal.
Sources:CBS News(Outlet not rated yet)The National(Outlet not rated yet)Federal Reserve Board(Primary source)U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics(Primary source)Deseret News(Outlet not rated yet)Grant Thornton(Outlet not rated yet)CBS News(Outlet not rated yet)Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives(Primary source)U.S. Senate(Primary source)
Latest developments
U.S. strikes Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz on the eve of the midterms
U.S. forces carried out limited strikes on Iranian targets on Qeshm Island, which Iran uses to monitor shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, after Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired on an American aircraft, a senior U.S. official told CBS News. Iran's deputy foreign minister said Tehran retained the right to self-defense. On Oct. 8 Trump had said the U.S. would not attack Iran before the election and that a blockade would remain in force; U.S. and Qatari mediators are working on a possible deal.
CBS News(Outlet not rated yet)The National(Outlet not rated yet)Al-Monitor(Outlet not rated yet)
U.S. economy grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, advance estimate shows
Real GDP rose at a 3.4% annual rate from July through September, up from 2.2% in the second quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its first estimate. Higher investment, mainly in inventories and equipment such as computers, along with consumer and government spending drove the gain, while exports fell. The PCE price index rose at a 2.1% rate, down from 5.0% in the prior quarter.
Fed holds rates at 3.75%–4% as two officials vote for another increase
The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4% in a 10–2 vote. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented, preferring a quarter-point increase. Its statement described growth as strong and inflation as still elevated, with unemployment little changed.
Trump opts for trade talks, not new tariffs, after security reviews of robotics and wind turbines
In proclamations on Oct. 22 and Oct. 28, Trump cited Commerce Department findings under Section 232 that imports of wind turbines and of robotics and industrial machinery threaten to impair national security. Instead of setting new tariffs, he directed the commerce secretary and the U.S. trade representative to negotiate with trading partners and report within 180 days, keeping tariffs, quotas and other measures as possible later steps.
The White House(Primary source)The White House(Primary source)
White House says Melania Trump brokered a local Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in Oleshky
The White House said First Lady Melania Trump had secured agreement from Russia and Ukraine to temporarily halt military action in Oleshky, a city across the Dnipro River from Kherson, starting Oct. 29, so humanitarian aid could enter and civilians who wished to leave could be evacuated. On Nov. 3 it said she would bring Russian and Ukrainian representatives together at the White House and speak about the ceasefire there on Nov. 5.
The White House(Primary source)The White House(Primary source)
Trump order implementing Russia sanctions law waives its tariffs and most sanctions
An Oct. 16 executive order implementing the Graham Act set a 500% duty increase on Russian goods and 100% increases on goods from the largest buyers of Russian oil and gas, but the same order waived those duties and most of the law's sanctions, with Trump certifying to Congress that the waivers serve the national interest. Sen. Richard Blumenthal, a co-sponsor of the law, criticized the move. On Oct. 9 the Treasury had said it would temporarily waive sanctions on Russia's energy sector so Russian diesel could reach world markets.
The White House(Primary source)CBS News(Outlet not rated yet)LIGA.net(Outlet not rated yet)
Consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier as gasoline jumped 9.1% in September
The consumer price index rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% over 12 months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Gasoline climbed 9.1% in the month and made up more than half of the overall increase, and energy prices were 20.4% higher than a year before. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.3% in the month and 2.6% over the year.
Trump sets up inquiry into whether there is cause to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook
A presidential memorandum created a committee of the assistant to the president for economic policy, the chair of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission and the head of the Office of Government Ethics to examine allegations that Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook made false statements on mortgage documents and to advise whether there is cause to remove her. It set a closed hearing at the White House for Nov. 5. In June the Supreme Court ruled 5–4 that Cook could stay in office while she contests Trump's attempt to fire her.
The White House(Primary source)Commercial Observer(Outlet not rated yet)
Supreme Court opens its term with immigration, voting and gun cases on the docket
The Supreme Court began its October 2026 term. Cases it has agreed to hear include disputes over the administration's detention without bond of noncitizens arrested inside the country and its deportations to countries other than migrants' own, Arizona's proof-of-citizenship rule for voter registration, and bans on AR-15-style rifles. The deportation case is set for argument on Dec. 9.
Deseret News(Outlet not rated yet)Supreme Court of the United States(Primary source)
U.S. employers added 29,000 jobs in September as unemployment rose to 4.2%
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 29,000 in September and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Revisions lowered July and August by a combined 60,000 jobs, turning July into a loss of 10,000. Average hourly earnings were 3.0% higher than a year earlier.
Refugee admissions capped at 17,500 for fiscal 2027, mainly for Afrikaners
Trump set the ceiling for refugee admissions in the fiscal year that began Oct. 1 at 17,500 and directed that admissions go primarily to Afrikaners from South Africa under Executive Order 14204. The determination, published in the Federal Register on Oct. 2, keeps admissions subject to earlier orders that suspended most refugee entries and require the most stringent identity checks for refugees.
Federal Register(Primary source)
Trump hosts Xi Jinping for a state visit; U.S. and China agree on tariff, coal and fentanyl steps
Chinese President Xi Jinping made a state visit to the White House, where a state dinner was held for him on Sept. 24. According to a White House fact sheet, the two governments put new trade and investment boards into operation and agreed on recommendations to ease tariffs on $30 billion of non-sensitive goods in each direction. China committed to buy at least 10 million metric tons of U.S. coal in each of 2027 and 2028, and the U.S. noted new Chinese export controls on two fentanyl precursor chemicals.
The White House(Primary source)The White House(Primary source)
Trump signs Russia and Iran sanctions law named for the late Sen. Lindsey Graham
Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, which broadens sanctions on Russia's leadership, banks, and energy and defense sectors, lets the president impose tariffs of up to 100% on the largest buyers of Russian oil and gas, and extends sanctions on Iran. The House passed it 262–159 on Sept. 16 after Senate approval in August. Graham, who championed the bill, died in July.
CBS News(Outlet not rated yet)Reuters via Hawaii Tribune-Herald(Outlet not rated yet)The White House(Primary source)
Fed raises its benchmark rate for the first time since 2023
The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4% in a 12–0 vote, saying inflation remained elevated. It was the Fed's first increase since 2023. Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation had been too high for too long, while President Trump, who chose Warsh, wrote on social media that rates should be 1% or lower.
Federal Reserve Board(Primary source)The Nation (Thailand)(Outlet not rated yet)