Intelligence · Election
2026 US midterm elections
Where it stands
Voters across the United States are casting ballots on Nov. 3, 2026, for all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and governors in 36 states. Republicans control both chambers of Congress. The House Clerk lists 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, one independent and two vacancies; the AP counts 219 members as caucusing with Republicans, and 218 seats make a majority. Republicans hold the Senate 53-47, with its two independents counted with the Democrats, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats because Vice President JD Vance breaks ties.
The AP declares a winner only when trailing candidates can no longer catch up; it took eight days to call the House in both 2022 and 2024. Ranked-choice counts in Maine and Alaska, late-arriving mail ballots and possible recounts could slow close races, and states take weeks to certify. Georgia holds any runoffs on Dec. 1, and the new Congress's terms begin Jan. 3, 2027.
More than 50 million people voted before Election Day, according to the AP. The final PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, taken Oct. 19-20, found likely voters favoring Democrats for Congress 52% to 44%, with 40% approving of President Trump's performance. The AP lists Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Texas and Alaska among Democrats' Senate targets and calls Maine's race a key contest; North Carolina has an open seat. According to the AP, mid-decade redistricting would on paper net Republicans nine House seats. On Nov. 2 the Supreme Court refused a Justice Department request to have California set aside mail ballots from about 20,000 people the administration suspects may not be citizens; state officials call the list unreliable. A federal judge had already dismissed the department's suit to block certification of Alaska's Senate result.
Sources:AP via PBS News(Outlet not rated yet)AP via PBS News(Outlet not rated yet)PBS News(Outlet not rated yet)Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives(Primary source)U.S. Senate(Primary source)AP via PBS News(Outlet not rated yet)PolitiFact via PBS News(Outlet not rated yet)Georgia.gov(Primary source)National Archives(Primary source)Supreme Court of the United States(Primary source)AP via PBS News(Outlet not rated yet)AP via PBS News(Outlet not rated yet)
Latest developments
Voters decide control of Congress and 36 governorships as Election Day gets underway
Voting got underway nationwide. Polls in Kentucky's 6th District close at 6 p.m. ET, and all polls in six states are closed by 7 p.m. ET. In Westchester County, New York, voting machines would not take paper ballots, so ballots went into emergency bags that officials said would be kept secure and counted. Rain and flooding moved 21 polling places in eight Florida counties and five on the Navajo Nation. The Justice Department said early Tuesday it was sending about 1,000 federal monitors to all 50 states.
AP via PBS News(Outlet not rated yet)AP via PBS News(Outlet not rated yet)Washington Examiner(Outlet not rated yet)PBS News(Outlet not rated yet)PBS News(Outlet not rated yet)AP via PBS News(Outlet not rated yet)
Supreme Court declines to make California set aside 20,000 disputed ballots
The Supreme Court denied the federal government's request for an injunction that would have required California to set aside the mail ballots of about 20,000 people the administration suspects may not be citizens. A federal district judge and a divided Ninth Circuit panel had already refused, and California officials said the list was unreliable and likely included many citizens.
Supreme Court of the United States(Primary source)AP via PBS News(Outlet not rated yet)AP via PBS News(Outlet not rated yet)
Rep. Haley Stevens endorses Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan Senate race
Stevens, a Democrat who narrowly lost the August Senate primary to Abdul El-Sayed, announced her support for Rogers at a Detroit church service two days before the election. Michigan Democratic Party chair Curtis Hertel said she was not a party member and would not be one in the future, and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer called the move a betrayal. Rogers said his campaign did not know beforehand that she would back him.
AP via PBS News(Outlet not rated yet)Fox News(Outlet not rated yet)
Federal judge dismisses Justice Department suit over Alaska Senate certification
U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason dismissed the lawsuit, finding the relief sought infeasible because many Alaskans had already voted and the government offered no practical way to set ballots aside while keeping votes secret. In a statement announcing its appeal, the Justice Department said the case was dismissed on procedural grounds.
AP via PBS News(Outlet not rated yet)PBS News(Outlet not rated yet)
Early voting runs ahead of 2022, with sharp gains in Senate battleground states
Five days before Election Day, more than 43 million people in 47 states and Washington, D.C., had voted early in person or by mail, an AP analysis of voting data found. Compared with the same point in 2022, early voting was up 50% in Texas, 83% in South Carolina and more than 30% in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas. The University of Florida Election Lab separately counted about 47.9 million early votes as of Oct. 30, passing the 2022 pre-Election Day total of 45.9 million.
AP via PBS News(Outlet not rated yet)Asharq Al-Awsat(Outlet not rated yet)
Justice Department issues subpoenas in Alaska inquiry into second Sullivan candidate
The Justice Department issued grand jury subpoenas in its investigation into whether Dan J. Sullivan Jr., a retired teacher who shares the senator's name, entered the race to pull votes from Sen. Dan Sullivan, a person familiar with the matter told the AP. The subpoenas followed a New York Times report suggesting that Democrat Mary Peltola's campaign had a role in recruiting him. Peltola denied knowing about his candidacy, Sullivan Jr. has long denied running at Democrats' request, and President Trump called for her to be prosecuted.
Final PBS News/NPR/Marist poll shows Democrats ahead among likely voters
The poll, taken Oct. 19-20, found likely voters backing Democratic House candidates 52% to 44%, with 40% approving of President Trump and 59% disapproving; the margin of error among likely voters was 3.8 points. About one in five likely voters said they had already voted.
Justice Department sues to block Alaska Senate certification if Sullivan loses
The Justice Department sued to stop certification of Alaska's Senate race if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses, alleging voter confusion. The suit sought an investigation into whether votes for a second candidate, retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan, listed on the ballot as Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., were meant for the senator.
PolitiFact via PBS News(Outlet not rated yet)AP via PBS News(Outlet not rated yet)
Filings show Musk gave $158 million to a Senate Republican super PAC in September
Federal Election Commission reports showed Elon Musk gave $158 million in September to the Senate Leadership Fund, nearly 58% of the $273 million that Republican super PAC raised in the third quarter, and $20 million to the House-focused Congressional Leadership Fund, The Denver Gazette reported. The paper said Musk also put $88 million into his America PAC. Political.org, citing an America PAC spokesperson, said Musk gave Republican groups more than $250 million over three months.
The Denver Gazette(Outlet not rated yet)Political.org(Outlet not rated yet)
AdImpact says midterm ad spending and bookings have passed $10 billion
Political.org reported that the ad-tracking firm AdImpact said on Oct. 14 that spending and future reservations for 2026 political ads had passed $10 billion. AdImpact now projects $11.6 billion for the cycle, up from its initial $10.8 billion forecast and above the $11.2 billion of the 2024 cycle, and counts about $500 million spent and booked for the Texas Senate race alone.
Political.org(Outlet not rated yet)AdImpact(Primary source)
NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot
The poll, taken Sept. 14-15, found registered voters preferring Democratic congressional candidates 53% to 41%, while 39% approved of President Trump's job performance and 59% disapproved. Forty-five percent said their vote for Congress would be a vote against Trump; the margin of error was 3.8 points.
NPR via KAXE(Outlet not rated yet)
Musk's America PAC reports its first spending of the midterm campaign
Elon Musk's America PAC disclosed more than $800,000 in spending on mailers and other printed materials for Republicans in over a dozen close congressional races, Reuters reported. The largest share backed Ken Paxton's Texas Senate bid against Democrat James Talarico; Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Jon Husted of Ohio also benefited.
Reuters via The Star(Outlet not rated yet)