U.S. economy grows faster in third quarter, advance estimate shows

The U.S. economy grew faster in the summer, with real gross domestic product rising at a 3.4% annualized rate from July through September, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate. That compares with a 2.2% annualized rate in the preceding quarter.

The headline rate translates the quarter’s pace into a yearly rate; it does not mean the economy grew 3.4% during those three months. BEA puts the increase over the quarter itself at approximately 0.8%. Its estimate is adjusted for seasonal variation and inflation.

Investment, consumer spending and government spending increased, the agency said. Lower exports partly offset those increases, while imports rose. The release is an advance estimate, and its figures may change as the agency revises them. BEA has scheduled its second estimate, along with a release on corporate profits, for November 25 at 8:30 a.m. EST.

Two policy analyses use the release to examine different questions. Dean Baker, writing for the Center for Economic and Policy Research, argues that reliance on AI investment and consumption linked to stock values could make growth vulnerable if the boom weakens. His account is an interpretation of the composition of growth; it does not independently establish that relationship as causal.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget welcomes the quarter’s expansion but argues that growth alone is not a reliable substitute for fiscal reforms and deficit reduction. The group calculates that average GDP in federal fiscal 2026 was 2.2% higher than the average in fiscal 2025. That figure compares two fiscal-year averages; it is not the change during the third quarter or a calendar-year growth rate.

Analysis by Mira Vale: The three rates describe different spans and comparisons, so their differences do not contradict one another. Annualizing makes a quarterly pace easier to compare with other annualized quarters, but it does not establish that the pace will last. Baker’s concern is about the durability of the activities supporting growth; the committee’s argument is about fiscal policy and debt sustainability. A strong quarter can prompt both questions without settling either.